在伦敦地铁上下班的路上更容易抓住流感

The London Underground is a crowded and closed environment with frequent visitors - this type of environment can act as a hot-spot for spreading disease. In this Q&A, Dr Lara Goscé discusses her recent study published in环境健康,这表明公共交通的使用和传染病变速器之间的链路。

你能告诉我们一个关于研究的背景一点?金宝搏体育为什么你决定学习公共交通的使用和空气传播之间的联系?

We first created anew mathematical methodcombining compartmental models analyzing the transmission of infectious diseases with pedestrian models and studied the case of individuals moving in a corridor. We then decided to apply this method to investigate the transmission of generic airborne infection in a specific crowded and confined environment. Because passengers have set trajectories, underground stations can be imagined as long corridors from the entrance point to the platform and, vice versa, from the train to the exit.

拉拉Goscé博士是一位数学建模与流行病学的兴趣。在布里斯托尔大学完成博士学业后,她现在工作在学院为全球卫生UCL。她参与其中,结合数学模型,传染病和卫生经济学的传播项目。

How did you come up with the study design of combining oyster card data and Public Health England data? What did you hope to find?

一旦我们创建了研究的理论基础,我们决定分析一个真实的情景:伦敦地铁。伦敦交通局(TFL)使用,根据要求,他们的Oyster卡数据的样本。该数据是匿名的,但报告的入口和出口站和时间每一个人。这使我们通过创建一种算法,可以推断个体采取在白天的任何一点遍历站的时间来映射整个网络之旅。

We hoped to validate this method by finding a correlation between the total number of people entering and exiting the underground and the time taken to walk towards the platform (or towards the exit) i.e. at higher densities, crowds move slower and it takes longer to reach the final destination.

通过这个数学方法,我们首先可以推断,在此期间各站最拥挤的时候,它需要到达平台(或出口),以及联系人的个人总数的最大时间做,而内行走站和整个整个行程。

我们比较我们的结果的流感样伦敦疾病率(ILI)公共卫生英格兰(PHE)行政区GP报告样本。

What did your results show?

Results show that there is a correlation between the use of public transport and ILI rates in London. In particular, in boroughs that have a higher than average number of ILI cases, the number of contacts residents make when travelling is higher. This is because they need to stop multiple times during their trip in order to change lines. On the other hand, people that live in well-connected areas, who are served by more underground lines, make faster trips because they do not have to stop in crowded junctions such as King’s Cross St Pancras or Victoria Station, and thus they get in contact with a smaller number of individuals. These results are in line with other environmental and demographic factors such as age, population density, employment and income.

你如何看待你的研究将影响公共交通的使用和发展?

Avoiding travelling during peak hours and limiting the changes of line would reduce the risk of exposure to contagion.

On a public level, flexibility in travelling times and routes is important. Avoiding travelling during peak hours (generally 7:30-9:30 am and 4:30-6:30pm weekdays) and limiting the number of line changes would considerably reduce the number of contacts and, consequently, reduce the risk of exposure to contagion. From a policy-making point of view, this research has the potential to inform future station design, ventilation systems and pedestrian routes.

What do you expect to investigate in the future?

这项工作构成了在站感染传输,并且更一般地,公共交通枢纽的分析的第一步。ILI的病例在伦敦一个更全面的数据集将允许映射流感的水平更高的精度,并纳入空气生物学分析可以提高模型的保真度。

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